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The Bears Growl

10 April, 2011 (23:51) | Bulls and Bears | By: admin

“Savawm hian a kut/ke hma hma lam hi thil ben thlak nan a hman ang hian market price rawn chho tur pawh Bear hian a beng thla thin a, chutiang chiah in Bawng hian a ki in chho zawngin a pir chho ve thung thin a, chumi ang chuan price pawh hi a pir chho ta thin a ni” an tia, hemi vang hian Bear leh Bull market hming hi a rawn put phah ta a ni. Tunlai India Stock market awm dan hi min rawn zawt tu an awm tak nual avangin, sawi ringawt aia a lo fiah deuh zawk takin Blog lamah ziakin dah  law law hi fuh zawk awm mange ka ti deuh va, kimchang lo takin ka’n thai lang ve leh ange.    

Tuna charting software ka rawn hman tur hi Forex broker  XTB, Warsaw www.xtb.com lam a mi daih an nia, an ni hi ka hman kher na chhan chu an charting software hi a free bakah Nifty Price record hi Dt 10 May 2001 atang khan an nei a, bakah Mumbai ah te pawh branch an rawn hawng ve ta bawk nen, amaherawhchu he broker hi an rintlak em tih erawh chu engmah sawitheih ka nei lo, an Free charting software hi ka rawn hman sak mai chauh a ni e. Hei hi India branch website www.in.xtb.com.  

 Broker ni lo Charting webstite hlang hlak www.icharts.in nena khai khin chuan XTB Price chart ah hian tlemte danglam hret na a awm a, Chumi chu:      

Dt 8th April 2011 S&P CNX Nifty chetna khaikhin dan chu hetiang hi a ni.

Price www.icharts.in www.xtb.com
Open 5886.75 5908.9
High 5926.95 5923.9
Low 5822.00 5832.0
Close 5842.00 5857.4

  Heta a danglam hret na chhan hi chu Spread or Brokerage (Broker ho ei ve tur) vang chauh a nia, Price analysis dawn tak tak ah chuan engmah pawina vak a awm hran lo. Broker ho ah hian Market Maker (MM) leh No Dealing Desk (NDD) te pawh an awm hrang thin tho va, heng ho ah pawh hian an price hi point tlem te te in a in thlau thin tho a nia.      

Market Corelation:      

S&P CNX Nifty hi tlem han sawi fiah zawr zawr i la, Bombay Stock Exchange index “Sensex” ang a hman lar tak a nia, Technical Analyst ho chuan Sensex ai mah hian an hmang nasa zawk a ni, mahse Sensex hi a nawl pui in kan hriat lar zawk a nih avangin thuziak dang ho ah kha chuan Sensex rawn hman a nia, mahse tuntum chu Analyst leh Professional Trader in an hman nasat zawk Nifty in he thuziak hi chu han behchhan ve teh se. Sensex san rual in Nifty pawh a sang ve leh mai thin a, chutiang chiah in Sensex hniam rual in Nifty pawh a tla vel leh mai thin a ni. Sensex in 21000 level a thlen chuan Nifty pawhin 6300 a han hawlh thleng ve leh mai a, hetianga che rual thin hi Market Corelation tiin an sawi nghe nghe.  Market Corelation langsar zual te :  

Forex Market: GBPCHF and EURCHF, EURJPY and GBPJPY, GBPUSD and EURUSD      

Commodities: GOLD and AUSSIE Dollar, OIL and Canadian Dollar. Australia hian international market ah Gold an produce hnem hle a, hemi vang hian Aussie $ leh Gold hi corelation nasa tak a awm phah a ni.      

Chutiang bawkin OIL leh Canadian Dollar hi corelation nasa tak a awm bawk a, USD leh Crude OIL price erawh “inverse relation” an ni thung: Crude OIL man a sanin USD a tla hniam ve thung.      

http://economics.about.com/od/pricesexchangerates/a/oil_and_dollars.htm      

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/aud-australian-dollar-gold.asp      

India Equity market: Sensex leh Nifty te hian Market Corelation nasa tak an nei a, chutiang bawkin USDINR leh Sensex/Nifty erawh Inverse relation an ni thung. Indian Rupee leh US Dollar thleng na a hniam in Sensex/Nifty a sang, chutiang chiah in Sensex a hniam in USDINR thleng na a sang ve leh thung a ni.      

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20302.html      

http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/menu/pitchletHome/marketCorrelation      

Nifty leh Sensex ah Market Corelation a awm chuan Nifty zawk ah Price analysis ta i la Sensex ah pawh a hman ve zel theih dawn tihna a ni ta ber mai.      

Nifty Technical Analysis  

1. Analysis with Trend line degree angle:      

Timeframe: 1 Day.      

(Timeframe awmzia chu 1 Day Timeframe tih chuan Candlestick pa khat hi ni khat zel tihna a ni mai, 1 Week Timeframe tih chuan Candlestick pakhat hi karkhat zel sawina a ni. 1 Day Timeframe a nihin Candlestick pakhat in close nan ni 1 zel hun a duh, chutiang bawkin 1 week Timeframe ah chuan candlestick pakhat in close nan kar khat zel a ngai tihna)      

Click on Pic to enlarge

 A chunga Nifty Japanese candlestick chart a lan ang khian, tunlai news duhawm lo tak tak Japan Earthquake, Libya, Eqypt leh Crude oil man sang lutuk leh India ah inflation nasa lutuk vang te in Price consolidation/Choppy market in hun engemaw ti chhung a awm deuh reng a, heng buaina neuh neuh sar hu a zo ta tih ah Nifty leh Sensex ah Price rally nasa takin a rawn awm ta zawk a ni. Mahse he price rally hi a san chak em a vangin 83 degree angle in a kawh chho pawt ta mai a ni. Price Rally hi 45 degree angle aia a san chuan rilru a hriat mai mai a tana tha chu rei tak chhung an rally chho mawh khawp mai http://www.tigersharktrading.com/articles/8894/1/Trendline-Slope-Angle/Page1.html      

 2. Analysis with Channel and Trendline      

Timeframe: 1 Day

Click on Pic to enlarge

 Hmanni Dt 9 Nov 2010 nifty rawn san leh zawk khan Nifty close na kha 6342.6 a rawn ni a, hemi lai hi Sensex 21000 a rawn khawih nawn na lai tho kha a ni, Pullback (Price tla) chhete a rawn awm a, tichuan vawi khat a rawn chho nawn leh a, mahse hetah hian san chhunzawm zel thei loin a tla chhunzawm ta zel a, hemi reilo te a rawn san leh zawk hnuhnung zawk Dt 3 Jan 2011 Nifty open 6201.1 leh hmanni a sanlai ber atang khan trendline pawt thla ta zai zai i la,  Dt 6 Apr 2011 a Nifty High (khami ni a san lai ber) 5967.9 (Kar kalta Nilaini) a san na kha a rawn tawk pha awrh a, a chhoh chhunzawm thei ta lo a ni. Hemi awmzia chu Milem chung zawka Trendline 1 khi Resistance line ah a rawn tang ta tihna a ni ber. Trendline chungchang chhiar chhunzawm duh tan http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:trend_lines       

3. Analysis with Japanese candlestick pattern and Fibonacci     

Timeframe: 1 Week       

Click on Pic to enlarge

Click on Pic to enlarge

  Hmanni Nifty rawn san leh ber leh ni leh a hnu ah a tlak thlak leh a a rawn san nawn leh zawk khan “Bearish Engulfing pattern” vawihnih ngawt mai a rawn in form hman der mai a, tichuan kar hmasa Dt 4 Apr 2011 to Dt 8 Apr 2011 inkar pawh khan “Shooting star” a rawn lang leh bawk a ni. Fibonacci retracement hmang tel leh ta bawk i la (Point no 3 Chart hnuai zawk), mahse tuna Fibonacci retracement rawn hman dan tur hi nidanga a hnuai atanga pawh ni lovin, chunglam atanga pawh a ni ve thung a ni. Candlestick shooting star rawn lanna khi Fibonacci 61.8 % zawn a rawn ni chiah a ni. A awmzia chu hmanni market a tlak thlak khan tunkar kalta a price rawn chho leh zawk khan a rawn retest leh tihna a ni ber. Chhiar chhunzawm duh tah http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearishengulfingp.asp hetah pawh http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shootingstar.asp      

4. Analysis with Chart pattern and Candlestick pattern      

Timeframe: 1 Month      

Click on Pic to enlarge

 1 month Timeframe hi nghah hun chhung a rei tawp, candlestick pakhat inform tur hian thlakhat zel nghah chhuah a ngai thin a ni. Mahse 1 month timeframe ah pawh hian Candlestick pattern Bearish Engulfing candle leh Shooting star a rawn lang leh ta heu mai, hei mai pawh a la ni lo Chart pattern “Double top” pawh hmuh tur awm ta tlat mai. Double tawp hi hmanni Nifty rawn san leh hnuhhnung zawk thlen khan a double top nghal ngawt lo, confirmation a ngai thin a ni, chu confirmation chu a chunga kan hmuh ang khian Bearish engulfing candle khi a rawn ni ta a ni. Heti lamah chhiar chhunzawm tur a awm e http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal      

5. Analysis With Indicator      

Timeframe: 1 month      

Click on Pic to enlarge

 Indicator ho hi entry nan chuan hmantlak an awm lo, an lagging(muang) vek tih thin a ni, mahse chumi vang chuan hnualsuat tur a ni chuang lo. A trend ennan leh Support/Resistance en nan te leh Bulls/Buyer leh Bears/Seller sentiment tam tak an ti lang thin a ni. A chunga alan ang khian Price khian Bollinger  Upper band a break zo lo a, hemi awmzia chu a overbought tawh tihna a ni, tichuan vawikhat middle band a zuk tawk zauh va, upperband khi a han khawih nawn leh pha ta lo a ni. Indicator hnuai zawka mi MACD hi Trend reversal en na hmingthang lutuk a ni, a parameter hi 5,8,5 ah set a nia, divergence chiang takin a lan tawh khi. Heti lamah hian chhiar belh leh ang le http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bollingerbands.asp MACD chungchang chu hetah ve thung hian http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_conve    

Trigger point!!!!   

Awle tuna mi kha kar kal ta thleng a Indian equity market awm dan chu a ni ta a, Individual investor tan enge ham thatna kan neih theih hun tur i thlir dawn teh ang le.    

Entry 1: Point No 2. Analysis with Channel and Trendline a Downtrend line No 1 zawk khi Price in a chho zawngin “breakout” phot sela tah chuan “BUY” na chance a awm angem ti a zawn chauh a fuh mai thei. 

Entry 2:  Breakout ni lovin Price hian Resistance/Downtrend line hi a lo zawh thlazel a nih chuan a hnuai a Point No 6 Analysis with Fibonacci Retracement and Simple average khu entry na atan chuan ngaihven a fuh mai thei. Mahse a hnuaia mi support level tura ngaih ah khuan a thleng thla a nih chuan Support zonah BUY nghal ngawt chu a la fuh chuang lo ang. News leh Chart/candlestick pattern leh indicator atanga “Confirmation” hmuh phawt loh chuan Entry nghal a la fuh chuang lo, Confirmation nghah leh phawt a him ber. A tawizawngin Point No 2 a Channel down or Trendline 1 leh Tredline 2 a awm mek khi price in a UP emaw Down zawk in emaw a breakout phawt emaw tuna Trendline 1 and 2, support leh Resistance a kal mek zawnah strong entry signal a rawn lang a nih ngawt loh chuan khawi lai ah mah entry rih loh kha a fuh mai thei tihna a ni ber e.   

 6. Analysis With Fibonacci retracement and Simple Moving average    

Click on Pic to enlarge

 Thil awm thei MAITHEI te i han chhut dawn chhin teh ang, kan hmuh angin Nifty chuan hnuailam a nger chhur mai si a, chutah chuan correction/pullback lo awm ta se, heng Nifty level hi support lo awm na turah a ngaih theih mai theih. Nifty 4864.4 (Fib 38.2%), 4412.1 (Fib 50%), 3959 (Fib 61.8%) leh 3400 (Fib 76.4%). Heng ho ah hian 4412 bawr velah support a awm theih a rinawmna deuh deuh te, Fibonacci 50% retracement a nih bakah 100 Simple Moving average nen a in tawnna lai tak a ni mai thei a ni. Hei hi Sensex ah chuan 16000 points bawr vel a ni. Tichuan Nifty level rawn ziah lan hi a number zat chiah chiah hi a ni dawn lo sa tih kha hriat lawk a tha ang, mahse a bawr vel hi a ni thei  mai awm mange tihna a ni ber e.

Comments

comments

Comments

Comment from caribou
Time April 16, 2011 at 10:43 am

Trend line pangai khi a zawm anih chuan a tla hniam thei viau dawn anih khi le. Zawi zawiin a tla hniam trial trial a, chutah chak tak maia a rawn up chho chiam thin hi chu a mak deuh thin chu a ni. 13.4.2011 pawh khan a up nasa tiah tiah asin. Mahse a let leh daih. Resistance leh support triger point hi bel taka thiam a chakawm khawp mai.

I thuziak hi a tha khawp mai, ka save hmak a nia aw.

Comment from admin
Time April 16, 2011 at 8:35 pm

@Caribou: Trigger point zuk hmuh tak hi a lawm, Profe ho in “chhiar a hriat ringawt chi a ni lo” an tih leh thin, “practise ngai a nia, Skill develop ngai a awm” an tih leh thin chu. Chumi practise nan chuan a nia Broker hoin (India broker ni lo) demo account in practise na tur an pek vek hlawm na chhan, tunhma computer awm hma pawha Wall street ah “Paper Trading” an tih fo pawh kha Demo trading lek hi mawle.
Technical Analysis chu Assumtion a ni ber a, lo ni ta se emaw a ni mai thei tih deuh vek a nia, “The chart never lies” an tih pawh hian bear market or bull market lo awm hun tur sawilawkna emaw a, a point awm tur lo sawi dik chat chat lam ni lovin, Price chart in entry na point or trigger point na lai tur, Clue a rawn tihlan lai tak sawi na ber hi a ni. “When to enter/exit” rawn lan lai sawi na a ni ber.

Comment from Lalsangliana Chhakchhuak
Time April 18, 2011 at 10:24 pm

I market analyse zet chu a standard kher mai. Hei bak hi chu tuman an hre chuang lo…Hei a dik chho zel leg nghal…I analyse atang hian capital market ENTRY hun tur kan lo chang ran e…mizo MARKET GURU chi i van ni chiang em..kei ngat phei chu i chherchhuah..nangmah atanga capital hmel hriat ve chauh hi ka ni a..i thurawn ka la beisei fo dawn a, min lo hrethiam hram hram aniang chu..

Comment from admin
Time April 19, 2011 at 11:56 am

@Lasangliana Chhakchuak: Ti lawmawm thin e, hrethiam teh reng mai 🙂

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Time May 2, 2011 at 10:14 am

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Time May 11, 2011 at 1:06 pm

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