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Stock Market Crash or a Simple Fibonacci 76.4% Ratio

8 April, 2011 (23:19) | Bulls and Bears | By: admin

Thuziak hmasa zawk ah Sensex hlir rawn hmang thin a, tun tum chu Analyst leh Professional Trader ho in an hman uar zawk NSE (National Stock Exchange) index NIFTY hi hmang ve thung teh ang. Fibonacci Retracement hi hetah hian tlem hmuh tur a awm a Click here hetah pawh www.investopedia.com Fibonacci ratio hi Forex market ah phei chuan an hmang nasa hle  a ni. Trader community ah hian Fibonacci ratio rawn hmang tan tu leh rawn ti lartu te a ngaih WD Gann leh R.N Elliot te hi khawvel financial market awm chhung chuan an hming hi a dai tawh kher lo mai thei a ni. Anni hi awm ta lo se tunlaia Professional trader/investor tam tak hi an awm kher lo ang, chumi vang chuan hranghlui kal ta te WD Gann leh RN Elliot a te hi Trader ho zingah chuan tunlai trader rawn hlawhtling tam tak ai hian ngaihsan an la hlawh zawk tlat na chhan. WD Gann a phei hi chu Astrological trading te a hman tel avangin Bear leh Bull market awm hun tur kum leh thla te kha a sawi lawk dik thei vek a ni! Astrological trading hi hrechiang duh tan hetah hian a click theih e, [A ziaktu hian a Astrological trading hi a thiam tihna a ni kher lo a nia :-)] www.astro-trading.net.  Gann Method atang lo chuan hetiang ang a thlen hun tur kum leh thla sawilawk hi a theih loh tluk a ngaih a ni. Amaherawhchu WD Gann hian a trading strategy hi midang hrilh chhawng loin mual min liam san an ti tlat mai! “a lehkhabu thenkhawt te pawh hi a damlaia a ziah zawh hman loh chumi hnu a phuailuai deuh va an chhuah chhawn leh mai mai a ni” an ti hlawm. Chhiar chhunzawm duh tan hetah hian a click theih e.

 
The Fibonacci 76.4% Ratio 

Step 1:  Dt 1 Oct 2003 ah Nifty in Resistance line a han tawk zauh va chumi ni a in close na chu 1422.5 a rawn ni a, hemi tuk hian Support Line or Trend line a break chho ta a, Price rally (Price chho zawnga kal) tawite a awm zawk, tichuan Pullback/Dip (price rawn let leh zawk) chhe te in a rawn chhunzawm.  

Step 2: Dt 18th May 2004 Resistance a break na kha Support rawn ni leh nghal in, Bull run a rawn in tan ta! Bull market intan hma a Horizontal trend line Resistance leh Support in thlak thleng na lai hi Fibonacci retracement pawh tan nan hmang ta i la, Fibonacci retracement pawh tawp na tur chu Nifty in Uptrend a thlen tawp ni thleng a ni ve thung ang.     

Step 3: Dt 24 Oct 2008 hian Stock market crash kan sawi huai huai kha a tawp ni a rawn thleng a, hemi ni hian Nifty close na 2559.6 a rawn ni ta a ni. Tichuan heta kan chhut tura hi “Stock market crash” tih chu a thuphung chuan a ni ngei mai, mahse hetiang anga calculation awm sa thlap a chetna hi Self Fulfilling prophecies emaw thleng ngei ngei tura trader hoin an awm luih tir a va ni zawk mai awm ve?   

Click on pic to enlarge

Step 4: Nifty 1472 atang hian Fibonacci retracement chu pawt ta i la, Fibonacci retracement hi Price chart ah an khap dan a in ang lo nual a, a thenin Japanese candlestick tail ah an pawh tan laiin a then in body atang te pawhin an pawt tan bawk a, mahse Japanese candlestick Tail leh Body atanga pawh hi chu point tam takin a in thlau vak hran chuang lo, leh market (Forex/equity/commodities) a zirin leh trade na timeframe a zirin hei hi chu a in thlau tam lo. Tuntum kan pawh tanna tur hi chu Dt 18 May 2004 Nifty close na 1472  Japanese candlestick tail ah pawt ta i la, a chhan ber chu Candlestick Tail leh Trendline a in zawn chiah vang hi a ni.     

Step 5: Dt 9 Jan 2008 Nifty close 6264.4 hi India stock market awm tirh ata a la thlen san ber ni a rawn ni ta a, helai hi Sensex 21000 thlen hmasak na lai tho kha a ni. Fibonacci retracement chu hemi ni market san lai berah hian pawt thleng ta i la, tichuan Bear market thlen tawp na lai tura kha a ngaihruat theih dawn ta a ni, Fibonacci retracement level tur te chu 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% leh 76.4% te an rawn ni dawn ta a ni.     

 
Price chart ah Fibonacci Retracement chu khap/pawh in, Stock  bear market emaw market crash tawp na lai kha 76.4% a rawn ni ta chiah a ni!
Awle, ti zawng kha Fibonacci rettracement an hman  dan chu a ni a,  Fibonacci retracement an hmanna hi Stock Bear market ni ta se khawilai nge a thlen thlak ang tih ngaihruat lawkna a a ni ber.
Stock Market crash a ni chiah nge thleng tura duan lawk sa ve reng (Self Fullfilling Prophecies) tih zawhna hi chu chhiar tu ngaihdanah in nghat mai teh se.

Comments

comments

Comments

Comment from caribou
Time April 16, 2011 at 11:07 am

I thuziak chhiar hi chu a bengvarthlak thin khawp mai. A dang pawh lo ziak zel teh khai. I thuziak reng reng, a lem nen thlapa i rawn ziak thin hi, a chhiartu tan hriatthiam a awlsam phah deuh thin. A tha khawp mai.

Fibonacci retracement hi peak atangin pawt thla ta ila, chart hlui analyse tur chuan resistance or support tawpna ah tak khan kan pawh kha tih tawp ve mai tur anih hmel a, mahse nakinah market tla thla zel tur emaw en duh ta ila, trend line pangaiah khan pawt thla ta zel ila, a khawi laiah tak hian nge kan tih tawp dawn? Ka pawt sei tulh tulh a, a danglam zel bawk si.

Resistance hmasa zawk hi 76.4% ah chiah dah ila, a next chiah chuan 38.2% a lo ni ve leh chiah a. A tawpna 0% chu 19000 sensex velah a awm. A hranah ka pawt leh chhin a, 0% chu 17000 velah a awm bawk. Support ka han pawt ve chhin a, 16000 velah 0% a awm daih mai.

Ka tih ve chhin hi a dik em?

Comment from admin
Time April 16, 2011 at 8:23 pm

@Caribou: Lo chhuk palh ta se, emaw correction/pullback lo awm palh ta se, Fibonacci retracement hi hmang lo in, Fibo Expansion an hmang zawk thin. Chumi chu profit Target en nan an hmang nual reng a ni, hei hi Japanese candlestick emaw chart pattern (Flag/wedge) formation atang te pawhin an thlir bawk. Mahse heng ho hi advance charting technique a nia, ka la ziak lang duh lem lo a ni. Fibonacci hi Fibo Arc, Fibo Fan, Gartley leh Fibo Circle te pawh an hmang thin, heng ho pawh hi advance technique vek a nia, la rawn ziak lo a ni e. Fibo retracement erawh hi chu an hman nasat ber a ni thung.

Comment from admin
Time April 17, 2011 at 6:11 am

@Caribou: Ka rawn comment chung hi tlem in a in kawkalh deuh. Market lo tla palh ta se, a en dan chu: Price awmmekna hnuai lawkah Strong support a lo awm sa tawh chuan, khami Support atang khan Fibo retracement chu pawh phawt tur a nia, tichuan a hma resistance a han thlen tawhna kha a pawh tawp na tur. Fibo Expansion ve thung chu, breakout lo awm palh ta se, a chungah emaw a hnuai ah emaw support leh resistance rin lawk nghal tur a awm sa loh chuan Fibo expansion an hmang thin.eg Sensex hian 21000 pel chho ta se, resistance a hma ah lo thleng tawh sa rin tur a awm dawn loh avangin Fibo retracement hmang loin Fibonacci expansion an hmang tawh zawk thin.

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