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The Bears Growl : Update 9 (Bulls Stampede)

1 April, 2012 (18:15) | Bulls and Bears | By: admin

“Zaidam thin thawk chu a na” an ti teh fo a, a dik na chen pawh a awm mah na le. Phul hring dup hmun ah, inngeih taka Bawng rual tla lai Savawm in an tih buai chhen chuan, Bawng rual zaidam tak pawh an thin butut a chhuak ve thei tho mai, chutiang Bawngrual thin rim chu Savawm te hian lo tawng in, Savawm te hi kimki chawih leh tawmin thap khawp in awm ta mai se mak tih vak tur pawh a ni lo, Savawm in Bawng rual thinthawk an tawng a ni ve mai. Mi thinrim tawng ve te

 Kum 1 liam dawn tep Dt 10th April 2011 khan “The Bears Growl” thuziak hmangin Nifty/Sensex hi a tlak mai theih thu leh a tlak theih na chhan ni awm a lang kha Technical Analysis hmang in rawn chhui/chhut a ni a. Hemi tum hian a tla ngei ngei ang pawh ka ti chiah lo, mahse a tlak kha ka RING ringawt a ni. Rin lawk ang deuh roh in, a hnu lawk ah Nifty pawh a chhuk thla ta reng a ni. Paragraph tawp lamah chuan, Stock market ah Investment ti duh tan, BUY leh na lai tur emaw lo channa lai tur tha awma ka RIN kha tlem in thai lan tel bawk a nia. Hetiang in:

Entry 1: Point No 2. Analysis with Channel and Trendline a Downtrend line No 1 zawk khi Price in a chho zawngin “breakout” phot sela tah chuan “BUY” na chance a awm angem ti a zawn chauh a fuh mai thei”

Hetah hian khami thuziak original pawh hmuh tur a la awm e.

http://maawma.com/?p=957#more-957

Hemi tuma Trigger Price lo chan athat na tur a ka rin “Downtrend Line No 1 chho zawngin Breakout phot sela” ti a ka lo sawi ve chu Dt 1st Feb 2012  khan Price/Nifty in a rawn tawn tlang chho ve ta tlat mai. Hetianga Nifty in Trendline ber a break/breach chhoh tak si ah chuan High Probability Strategy kha ngaihven a ngai dawn ta a ni.

DISCLAIMER: Stock Market ah hian tumah in Price prediction an sawi hian, 100% in a dik ngei ngei ang an tihna a ni lo,  mahse dik chang a awm ta thin a, chuti chung pawhin Mihring tung chho a piang tawh phawt tumah in 100% in an sawilawk dik thei lo tih kha hriattur a ni. Chutiang a nih vang chuan tuna mi pawh hi a dik ngei ngei dawn ka ti hauh lo, Price chart ah hian BUY Signal rawn lang ka hmuh angin ka rawn sawi mai a ni, hemi vang hian tu te pawhin Stock market ah he thuziak vanga investment an lo tih a, Loss palh an awm chuan, a ziak tu hian mawhphurhna a nei lo ang. Tuna Nifty Analysis pawh hi a rawn dik vek thei a, a dik lo vek thei tho bawk, Whipsaw te pawh awm thei a nia, chumi vang chuan a ziak tu pawh hian Money Management leh Stop Loss nen lo chuan market ah a lut ngai lo a ni.

Tuna Nifty Analysis rawn ziah tur hi a dik a nih chuan The  Bears Growl thuziak series hi a tawp na a ni tawh ang, a chhan chu market hian Swing Cycle a zawh zo (complete) chiah dawn tihna a ni.

Nifty Analysis

Technical Analysis atanga Financial market ah Entry point an zawn reng reng hian hriat tur pawimawh tak chu, Technical Analysis hi market price awm dan tur hrilhlawkna/sawilawkna lam ni loin market ah zuan luh chat na tur zawnna a ni ber, “A hniam laia BUY tur/a san laia SELL tur” tih hi chu a dik teh meuh mai, mahse market price hniam thla zel hi, a hniam tawp a thleng tawh em? tih kha nghaihven thin phawt tur a ni. A hniam tawp nghah te te a, chuta tanga arawn in sawh khawk chho leh ah khan lo BUY chat thin tur a ni. Hei hi a hmingah pawh “Bottom Out/Breakout” ti te pawhin an sawi thin a ni. High Probabilty Trading an tih te pawh hian chutiang a Market price tla thla vawn vawn in a tlak tawp (Support) a zuk thleng a, Support atanga a rawn sawh khawk chho leh chiah a lo luh tur an sawina a ni thin.

Trigger Point:

Tuna entry na lai ka rawn sawi fiah tur hi nakin zelah, mahni in hmu thiam tur chuan vawikhat chhiar mai hi a tawk dawn lo a, vawi engemaw zah chhiar nawn a ngai dawn a nia, kum 5 chuang daih pawh a ni mai thei, chumi ai rei chhiar tawh hnu ah pawh la hriatthiam theih miah loh pawh thil awm thei a ni.

1.     Breakout:

Time Frame: 1 Day

Down Trendline 1 (Resistance) Nifty in a tawn tlang chhoh dan hi chiang deuh hlekin en ta i la, Dt 1st  Feb 2012 market in close khan Bull candle a nia, he candle hian Down Trendline 1 kha a tawn tlang chho a ni. Hemi a tawn tlang chhoh hian a break tawh tihna a la ni mai lo, a tuk Dt 2nd  Feb 2012 khan Down Trendline 1 chungah Doji Candle pakhat a in close leh a ni. A tuk a Candlestick in close leh hi Doji emaw bull candle emaw, eng candle pawh ni se, Down Trendline 1 (Resistance) chungah hrim hrim a in close chuan a break ta tih confirm nan a ngaih a ni. Hetia a break chhoh chiah a, a chungah candle atuk ah a in close hian Support emaw Resistance break a ngaih a ni thin. Financial market dang zawng zawng (Forex/ Commodities/ Future/ Equity) ah pawh hetianga candlestick in  Support leh Resistance a break a, a chungah emaw a hnuaiah emaw candle pakhat a awm tawh reng reng chuan, kha Support emaw Resistance kha break/breach a ngaih a ni thin.

 

Nifty in Resistance a break lai chiah a, a awm dan tur hi a break hma thla 3 bawr vel, Dt 27th  Oct 2011 The Bears Growl: Update 8 (Re-Entry) ah khan lo ziah lawk ve mai mai  a nia, hei a rawn break tak ah chuan a lo in ang ve tep a lawm le.

He Nifty Chart hi a break hma si, a break huna a awm thin dan lo ziah lawkna  a ni a. Rawn dah nawn leh le.

Hemi tuma thuziak hi he tah hian a la chhiar theih e http://maawma.com/?p=1364  

2.     Trigger Point:

Trigger point lai tak hi hriat a awlsam leh zual nan. Time frame pahnih 1 day leh 1 week hmangin sawi fiah ange.

Financial market ah Support leh Resistance Price in a break hian, BUY emaw SELL emaw nghal ngawt tur a ni lo va, INRING RAWH U LE (Alert) tihna a ngaih chauh hrih tur a la ni. Price kalphung ah reng reng, hetia a break hian vawi khat a rawn retest leh thin a, hetiang retest hi PULL BACK kan tih thin a chu a ni, Pull Back ah hian lo BUY chat thin tur a ni.

Chart ah kan hmuh ang hian Nifty in Down Trendline 1 (Resistance) hi a phil chho tlang tawh a, hetiang ah hian lo zuan luh nghal tur a la ni lo, price chho mek kha chhe te a rawn chhuk leh det ang (Pull back) chumi chu lo nghah a, Pull back ah tak chuan lo BUY thin tur a ni. Sawi leh sawi hnu Financial market price chu che kual reng, Wave emaw zigzag hlir a che thin a ni kan tih tawh kha, tuna chho pawh hi a chho tlang dawn lo, wave in siam turin a rawn “Pull Back”  leh phawt dawn a ni tih kha rilru ah hriat kar tur. 

Time Frame: 1 Day

Chart a kan hmuh ang hian, Nifty in Downtrend Line 1 (Resistance) khu a break phawt a, tichuan a chho zel phawt a, chuan a rawn uai thla a (Pull Back), chumi ah chuan lo luh chat thin tur a ni. 

 

 

Time Frame: 1 Week:

            Time frame lian 1 week leh 1 month ah chuan Chart Pattern/Formation hi a lang muang tawh a, mahse Time frame a len zawh poh leh Technical analysis hi a rin tlak zel a ni tih hriat tur, Support leh Resistance hi Time Frame lian apiang in a tih lan kha  a rintlak thin a ni. Long Term Investor ho chuan Time Frame lian hi an hman ber a ni.

Dt 1 Feb 2012 ah Nifty in Down Trendline 1 a break velah khan entry na tur chu ka lo chang ta khiau mai a. Down Trendline 1 a break hnu thla khat leh tlem a liam ta tih ah Dt 16th Mar 2012 (Friday) khan ka BUY ta a ni. Heta ka buy na chhan hi Nifty in Trendline 1 a break tawh tih ka hria a, Pull back pawh a rawn ni leh tawh a, chumi pull back tawp lamah chuan Hammer Candlestick (1 week candle) rawn lang hmasa berah khan ka lo buy ta ni. Hriat tur chu Hammer Candlestick zawng zawng ah hian buy vek tur tihna a ni lo a nia, hetia trendline leh chart pattern te a rawn lan lai tak, Pull back te a rawn ni leh te te phawt a, chumi lai a Hammer Candlestick rawn lang chauh ah khan lo BUY thin tur a ni. Tuna kan hmuh ang hian.

Hammer Candlestick kher lo pawh Bullish Engulfing candle pawh hi BUY nan a tlak tho a ni.

3.    Stop Loss:

Money Management, Stop Loss leh Strategy hi engtik lai pawha kal rual reng tur a ngaih a ni, hemi te pa 3 hi Stool ke pathum nei ang kan tih tawh kha. Stool ke pawh pakhat a tliah chuan a thut tlak loh a ni.

Achunga rawn sawi tak khi High Probability Strategy/Setup chu a ni teh meuh mai, mahse rin loh zawngin market rawn vir thut ta se, chhuah leh nghal na tur kha lo inrin lawk vek tur a ni. Money Management leh Stop Loss chhut dan hi Thuziah then khat ah ka rawn sawi lang tawh tho nachungin, pawimawh ka tih em vangin ziak nawn leh ange .

Eg: Miin a sum khawl sa hi Rs 20,000 lo ni ta se, 10% bak Financial market ah Investment nan hman reng reng loh tur a ni. Rs 20,000 atanga 10% chu Rs 2,000 (Cheng sanghnih) a lo ni ta a, tichuan Rs 2,000 hi Trading/Investment capital market ah kan zuan luh pui tur chu a lo ni ta a. Trading/Invesment Capital atana dah hran ah pawh khan 10%-25% ah Stop Loss kha la dah leh tur a ni. Rs 2000 atanga 10% chu Loss palh ngai ta se, market a loss zat tur chu Rs 200 a ni dawn tihna a ni. Hetiang a calculation nen thlap a market ah zuan luh thin a nih vang hian Calculated RISK an tihna chhan pawh hi a ni.

Rin loh zawngin market lo vir ta thut se, Stop Loss dah na lai tur chu, BUY na lai signal hmuhna tak Hammer Candlestick tail hnuai chiah ah khan dah tur a ni. Nifty chart ah hian en ila a lang chiang deuh ang.

10-25% risk na lai tur leh lo BUY na lai sawifiah nan Price action hi a hranpa in draw ta i la. BUY signal hmuh veleh market ah zuang lut ta i la, kan Fund value/Trading/Investment capital kha rin loh zawng in minus palh ta se, 10% aia tam a minus chuan beiseina vang ringawt a Market rawn chhoh leh lo nghak lo in chhuah nghal mai tur tihna a ni ber. Aggressive deuhin 25% thleng te pawh an risk thin, kei chu engtik lai mahin 10% – 15% bak hi ka risk ngai lo. Duh thusam ah phei chuan Minus miah lo a Breakeven (No Profit No Loss) a chhuah ka la thlang zar zar. 70% chuang te dah minus hi tih reng reng loh tur a ni. Rs 2000 atanga 70% minus chu Rs -1600 a minus tawh tihna a nia, a aia tam 100% thleng pawh a Minus thla zel thei a ni. Chuvangin a minus tam hma in a tirah khan lo in chhut lawk vek a zuan chhuah zawk mai tur a ni. A hnu ah Entry Signal dang lo chan leh zawk mai tur.  

4.     Profit Target

Entry hmuh hnu ah profit target zawn leh dan hmasa ber tur chu Future Resistance zawn phawt tur a ni.

(a)  Future Resistance

Step 1: Dt 8 Jan 2008 Nifty 6336 atangin New Trendline 1 pawt phei tan i la,

Step 2: Dt 9 Nov 2010 Nifty 6342 ah in nghat phei ta se.

Step 3: A chunga mi te pahnih ah hian New Trendline 1 pawh a nih chuan ngil takin Trendline kha phei ta se, Nifty 6331/Sensex 21000 bawk hi Future Resistance a rawn ni leh MAITHEI a ni.

 

(b)  Price Wave (Elliot Wave)

Future Resistance tur ber ngaih ruat hnu ah, Nifty Price chet dan hi Elliot wave hmangin chhui ta i la. Elliot wave ah chuan Point A-B leh Point C-D hi in zat deuh tho a ngaih thin a ni. Nifty point A-B hi wave 1 na ah ngai ta i la, point C-D hi Wave 2 na ah a ngaih zawn theih dawn a ni. Tichuan Elliot Wave ah chuan Wave A-B leh Wave C-D a in tluk thin a ngaih a nih chuan Nifty hi lo chho leh palh ta se, Wave A-B zat chiah chu Wave C-D hi a va nih hmel duh mai awm ve Profit target atan, chumi chu NIFTY 6331/ Sensex 21000 bawr vel ah a ngaih theih ta a ni.

5. Assumption:

 Technical Analysis chu a thleng ngei ngei dawn a ni tihna a ni lo kan tih fo tawh kha. Tunah hian Strong BUY signal chu a lang teh meuh mai, mahse a ni lo zawngin a vir thut thei tho a ni. Kan dik lo a ni tih kan hriat theih dan tur:

Step 1: Elliot wave Point A-B a ngaih hi, Point B awmna zawn Nifty 5636 lai hi Minor Resistance a ni ve thei tho a ni, chumi vang chuan he lai zawnah hian Nifty a chhoh tlang theih loh a, helai zawnah hian a tan tlat emaw helai zawnah hian a han in sawh muk a(Consolidate), a chhoh tlang theih bawk si loh a, heng candlestick engemaw ber hi a rawn lan bawk si chuan chhuah leh nghal tur a ni. Candlestick ho: (a) Shooting Star (b) Bearish Engulfing Candle leh (c) Railroad Track. Heng candlestick ho hi The Bears Growl series dangah rawn sawifiah nual tawh tho a, a hranpa in sawi nawn kher tawh lo mai ang.

Step 2: Nifty hi chho thei loin vir thla ta thut se, Stop loss awmna lai khu  Bearish Candlestick in a break thlak chuan chhuah nghal tur a ni. Inrin hman hma in a chhuk thut PALH ta a nih chuan 10% vel chu Loss a ngai mai thei, mahse Calculated loss a ni tawh dawn avangin khatiang kha chu ui loh tur a ni. Sumdawnna pangai ah pawh LOSS chu tlem te tal a awm ngei ngei zel kan tih tawh kha. “Every Battle is won before it is even fought”— Tsun Zhu

Tlangkawmna:

Tuna mi hi a dik palh a nih chuan tuna thu ziak hi Breakout Strategy ti a an sawi chu a nia, a then chuan Trend Continuation ti te pawhin an sawi bawk thin.

Happy Investing

Comments

comments

Comments

Comment from caribou
Time April 2, 2012 at 12:26 am

A va tha tak em. Uluk takin ka chhiar nawn dawn. Chart hi a zira zir peih tan chuan a lo tha hle anih hi.

Mahni puala blog nei theuh theuh, kan thuziak te hi a lo va inhlut hleih thin tak em. Thu ho mai mai ka ziak thin laiin nang chuan a zira zir tham i rawn chhawp chhuak bik thin si a. A dang pawh lo ziak fo thin teh.

Comment from caribou
Time April 2, 2012 at 7:19 am

A ngaihnawmin a bengvarthlak hle mai. Nifty ang zawnga analysed hi hriatthiam a har ka ti, sensex zawnga ziak hi chuan a digit tap lam hi ‘000’ angin a kal thin a, hriatthiam a awl deuh hlek em ni aw, ka ti deuh.

Comment from admin
Time April 2, 2012 at 11:57 am

@Caribou: I rawn leng lut hram thin a, ti lawmawm e. Sensex leh Nifty chungchang ah chuan kei pawh a tir khan Sensex hlir hi ka en thin a, a hming lar zawk kha a ni miau a, mahse han belh chian deuh takah chuan Nifty hi a lo dik daih zawk lawm. Stock market ah chuan Volume tam hi pawimawh lutuk a, nifty volume chu sang thei tak a ni. Volume ber a san chuan chart pattern leh candlestick pawh a dik zawk zel. Sensex candlestick leh Nifty candlestick khaikhin chuan Nifty hi a inrem dik thlap zel, volume tam vang kha a ni mai. Hnang tah bit nalh tak hi Nifty chart nen ka khai khin deuh thin, Sensex chu arbawm tah ang deuh hian a khat phuar zel.

Chart atang lo chuan Financial maket ah Trigger pull na lai tur a hriat theih loh reng reng, hemi vang hian Chart chu Pawimawh No 1 a ni ringawt.

Comment from Dr John
Time April 21, 2012 at 2:15 pm

I post ho hi a ropuiin a tha hlawm hle mai. Keini ang duang tan chuan ‘a tha’ tih bak sawi tur ka’n van khawp mai. I Luanliamna mai mai mah heti hi a nih chuan… tih tak takin han ti phei la chu… hihi, Keep It Up.

Comment from admin
Time April 21, 2012 at 10:20 pm

@Dr John, a taka in hmuh lohna arei ta hle mai, mi i fak der a, awm dan pawh ka’n thiam dawn hlei nem 🙂 ti lawmawm e. I la rawn leng fo dawn nia

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