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Almighty Dollar

15 December, 2011 (21:51) | Bulls and Bears | By: admin

Thuhma

“US Dollar nei ngah ber ban phar tur” ti ta se, a phar lo chiang ber te zingah ka tel ve ang, “US Dollar nei lo ber ban phar tur” ti leh ta se, an sawi zawh hma a ban phar hmasa zingah ka tel chiang viau bawk ang. “A nih leh US Dollar in World market hi engtinnge a khawih danglam thin a, Mizoram atanga investment kan lo tih ve nate ULIP (Unit Link Insurance Plan) leh Mutual Fund te hi engtin nge a tih chet thin a, Imported goods ho man hi ngatinge a to vek?” tiin zawhna rawn siam leh ta se, tukhum thak hiat a inngaihtuah mual mual chungin, buh nuaih in mahse zam na chhete awm map lo in mahni ngaihtuahna a lo awm ve tuna ka rawn sawi tur hi ka din chhuah pui ngam ka ring.

Mumbai ah te chuan zin ve fo tawh thin mah ila Dalal street la kal miah loh chu sawi loh Wall street, New York te phei chu thlalak atanga hmuh tih mai loh chu suangtuahna mithla atang pawhin a awm dan tur pawh ka mitthla thiam lo ve. Wallstreet em chu la zuk rap thleng lo mah ila kan Zoramah Internet leh Banking technology (Internet banking) te in min rawn hual ve tak khup avang hian Wallstreet a Professional trader/investor rual awm khawm ho sulhnu erawh an chet rual zelin a chhui ve theih ta chu a ni e. Internet vang hian heng Wallstreet Professional Trader/Investor hrawl pui pui ho Trading Terminal/Platform (Professional Investor hoin Financial market luhnan a software an hman thin) leh an broker hman ang te hi kan ram riang te tak te atang hian man chawi pawh ngai lem loin a zuk hman ve theih phah ta der mai nia mawle!

Keu hawnna:

Sum/Money hi Commerce zirlai bu ah chuan “Medium of Exchange” tih a ni, he medium of exchange atana khawvel in a hman nasat ber US Dollar hian engtin nge Indian Economy tha reng si a thil man a tih san chhoh vak, India Rupee atanga US Dollar thleng na a san tual tual a, kan investment neih ve ang chhun Unit Link Insurance Plan leh Mutual Fund (Diversified Equity) ah a tlem emaw a tam emaw a rawn tih pun a, a hloh theih teh daih tih hi pasaltha ho in Sapui hnu an chhui angin heng professional ho sulhnu hi i chhui dawn teh ang.

Kan hriat theuh angin India stock market ah chuan FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) ho hi sum hlawm ngah ber leh inthurual a che huk thin an nih avang hian tumah in ngam hek lo, an duhtawk in India market an rawn Khuainuai vel ta mai si a, mahse heng FII ho hian India ramah investment an rawn tih dawn in kan unau ngal sin, sang zit zet ho hian FII ho sum rawn hum luhna US Dollar chu a ngai ngai a rawn luh pui an phal bik der si lo, loh theih lo in Currency Exchange ah INR (Indian Rupee) ah an rawn thleng ngei ngei a lo ngai a, chutiang bawkin India market an chhuahsan pawhin INR (Indian Rupee) kha US Dollar ah an thleng let leh tho a lo ngai bawk si, FII hoin Rupee an la chhuak a US Dollar in an ram lamah Profit an book meuh chuan NIFTY/SENSEX hi a min thla ta heuh heuh mai a, tichuan US dollar ber an ram lamah an chhek luh zel avangin US Dollar hlutna pawh a sang chho ve nghal ta zel thin a ni. Gandhi lu intar na currency note hi New York/Chicago velah chuan hmanna vang deuh pawh ni mahna le. Chutiang teh nuaih a nih avang chuan Forex market a USD/INR (US Dollar vrs Indian Rupee) pair che hian thil tam tak a rawn hril ta a ni. Hetiang anga Forex market leh India stock market in kungkaih na hi a hmingah pawh Intermarket Relationship/ Market Co relation an ti nghe nghe a ni. India stock market chauh lo pawh US dollar leh US lam Stock market pawh he dollar che hian zu han ti dang lam thei a! Sensex/Nifty leh US Dollar a chet rual ang tho hian Dow Jones/S&P 500 (US Stock market Index) te pawh hi US Dollar chet rualin an che ve vek tho mai. ULIP/Mutual Fund (Diversified equity) ah kan lo invest ve Rs 1000 kha he US dollar hlutna nasa taka che thin hian a rawn ti pung emaw a hloh daih zawk theih reng a, chutiang bawkin US Dollar ber a san chuan loh theih lohin India rama Imported goods ho kha a man a rawn sang ve nghal vek a lo nia lawm!  Hetiang a US Dollar meuh an ram lamah a hawn let chuan naupang thang duang ang maiin US Dollar hi a sang chho ta awk thin a ni. Chhiar chhunzawm duh tan: 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-22/dollar-status-grows-as-foreign-banks-double-deposits-at-fed.html

Wallstreet lam atanga FII hoin India market an rawn hum luh thin zat chu tuna link ah hian a hmuh theih e, an ni (FII) ho tan chuan an kuhva khawr man zat vel lek pawh a ni ta ve ang.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockmarket/foreigninstitutionalinvestors/13/50/activity/FII

Intermarket Relationship a bik in Forex market (Currency Exchange) leh India Stock market in laichinna hi sawifiah tak tak dawn chuan khawvel market lian ber mai, Chiahpuam vanglai pawh a kan lam rik ve chhen FX or Forex market hi han sawi kai ta zawr zawr phawt i la.

Currency hlut na hi amah ringawt chuan a teh theih ngawt loh a, entirnan India Rs 100 note leh India Rs 100 (Coins) tho chu a hlutna (value) a in zat reng, thleng nawi pawhin Rs 100 a nih chhung chu a hlutna a in ang reng. Chutiang chiah in US$ 10 leh US$10 chu a hlutna a teh theih miah lo a ni. Mahse currency pa khat hlutna teh dawn chuan ram dang currency nen khai khin a lo ngai ta thin a, hetiang anga ram pahnih currency pahnih an khai khin na hi Currency pair ti a sawi a ni. Heng currency pair hi nitin a che reng thin a, hemi Currency pair lei leh hralh tawnna hi Forex Market or FX Market tia sawi a ni. Tunlai khawvel “Global Village” ah hian ram bung hrang insumdawn tawnna a nasa em em tawh mai a, hetah hian loh theih loha nitin Sum in thleng tawn kha ngei ngei in a ngai a, hemi vang hian Forex market a nitin Trading Volume hi 4 Trillion Dollar (April 2010) vel a chhut a ni, hei hi tunah tak phei chuan a aiin a tam tawh an ti leh nghal. Nikhat Trading Volume hi khawvel a stock exchange lian ber NYSE pawhin a phak lo nasa hle a ni. 1 Trillion dollar hi Indian Rupee ah chan tir phei chuan  Millenium Center building tiat pa 6 velah beng khat tan i la, a leng kher lo ang. 1 Trillion dollar tam zia hi hriat a awlsam zawk nan he youtube video hi en ta lawk i la: 

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4-4bvuX7qA&feature=related

Heng a hnuai a mi te hi rambung hrang pahnih currency hlutna atana an teh/thleng dan ber a chu a ni.

EUR/USD = Euro leh US Dollar Nickname: EURO/FIBER

USD/CHF = US Dollar leh Swiss Franc Nickname: Swissy

USD/JPY = US Dollar leh Japanese Yen

GBP/USD = Great Britian Pound leh US Dollar Nickname: Cable

AUD/USD = Australian Dollar leh US Dollar Nickname: Aussie

USD/CAD = US Dollar leh Canadian Dollar Nickname: Loonie

A chunga currency pair 6 khi Major currency pair ti a sawi thin an nia, Currency pair ah reng reng chuan unit 1 sang zawk zel kha a hma ah a awm thin a tichuan a hmasa zawka inziak hi Base currency and tia a hnu hnung zawk a mi hi Counter currency tih a ni bawk. Unit 1 tih chuan US $1 leh Re 1 (INR) ah hian unit khat ve ve ah US $ value a sang zawk a, chumi vang chuan USDINR ti a ziah thin a ni, INRUSD ti a ziah chu ziahdan diklo a ni. Eg USD/CHF ah hian USD (US Dollar) hi Base currency a nia tichuan CHF (Swiss Franc) hi Counter Currency chu a ni. US Dollar 1 unit leh CHF 1 unit ah khan US Dollar hi a hlu zawk tih na a ni. Currency pair khat hi rambung hrang pahnih economy rawn lan chhuah na ber te an nia, hriat thiam awlsam zawngin USDCHF hi a san chuan Switzerland aiin USA economy a tha zawk tih a hriat theih thin a ni, a nih loh pawhin USA hi an ram economy lo tla hniam ta se USDCHF hi a hniam leh mai thin. Currency reng reng hi a ram neitu economy, News, political events, market sentiment etc vangin a hlutna hi a rawn che ta thin a ni. Forex market chungchang chhiar chhun zawm duh tan:

http://www.babypips.com/school/what-is-forex.html

http://maawma.com/?p=110

Enge?

 Dollar Index: Almighty Dollar chu thlur bing chho zel ta i la, a chunga Currency pair rawn sawi ang khian USA leh ramdang Currency paruk thlan bik ho currency pair bik hlawm khawm tehna hi a awm a, chumi chu Dollar index tia sawi a ni, a symbol pawh USDX a nia. Dollar Index hi Company stock price index Nifty/Sensex ang chiah khan US Dollar hi ramdang paruk atanga hlutna tehna ber a ni. Dolar Index an tan hian 100 points atangin an tan a, tichuan USDX 120 points a nih chuan dollar a sang a, USDX 70 points a nih chuan US Dollar chu a hniam tiin an sawi ta thin a ni. Dollar Index a san chhoh chuan heng ram bung hrang Eurozone, Japan, Great Britain, Canada, Sweden leh Switzerland ai hian US dollar hian a hlutna a rawn nei chho nasa hle ta tih a hriat theih ta thin a, Dollar index tehna zingah Indian Rupee hi tel ve lo mahse Dollar Index ber a rawn san miau tawh chuan Indian Rupee leh US Dollar thlengna chu loh theih lohin a sang ve nghal ngei ngei ta thin a, hetianga US Dollar a san leh hniam hian namen loin world market a rawn ti danglam nasa ta thin hle mai.

 Dollar Index USDX ah chuan hetiang hi ramdang currency nen a bukrih lam chu a ni e.

Euro (EUR), 58.6% weight

Japanese Yen (JPY) 12.6% weight

Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight

Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight

Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and

Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

 http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/usdx.asp#axzz1ZUSOYB2N

 Ngatinge?

 Ngatinge Almighty Dollar a nihna chhan sawi dawn chuan a chunga mi te khi sawikual duah a ngai phawt a, tunah chuan a sawi tan theih tawh ang le. Dollar Index chu hetianga enthin hi a nia. Heta Dollar index chart hi England lam forex broker ho Meta Trader 4 Trading Terminal hmang ta ila, trading terminal hi an website ah khan Free in a download mai theih e.

http://www.forexltd.co.uk/

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

 Dollar chart kan hmuh ang hian nitin hi a che ringawt mai a, a chang leh a hniam a, a chang leh a sang bawk a, hei hi a chhan tamtak zingah a hnuaia mi  Econonmic news te pawh khu a tel a, chumi aia pawimawh ber mai Market sentiment te pawh a ni tel vek tho a ni. Short term a US Dollar ti che nasa thin ber hi a tlang pui han sawi leh ta zawk i la, United States ah heng Economical Data result an puan hian a tha lam pang (Positive) a rawn nih chhoh chuan US Dollar hi a rawn sang ta nghal mai thin a, heng Economical Data bikah hian ahnuaia pa 6 te khu an pawimawh zual bik. A en dan tur chu Economical News an puan hun tur ni leh darkar kha lo hriat a, a sang em, a hniam em tih lo hriat ve mai kha a tawk chiah. Hriat tur chu hetiang Economical News hi Short term tan chauh a ni, a bak chu Market sentiment vanga che a ni tlangpui tawh thung.

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

 1. Employment Situation (Non Farm Payroll)

2. Interest Rate Announcement by FOMC, FED Chairman and FOMC Minutes

3. Consumer Price Index

4. Durable Goods Order

5. Gross Domestic Product

6. Producer Price Index (PPI)

7. Housing Starts

8. Industrial Production

9. International Trade Balancer

10. ISM Manufacturing Index (Chicago PMI)

11. Personal Income and Outlays

12. Retail Sales and Food Services

13. University of Michigan Sentiment Survey

14. Philadelphia Fed Survey – Business Sentiment Survey

Hetianga dollar a chet thin avang hian India in Foreign atanga Foreign bungraw import ho chu aman a rawn sang ta thin a ni. Computer bungrua leh a kaihhnaiwh bik ah te phei chuan 95% vel hi import a nih avangin Hard Disk, RAM, Motherboard etc te hi aman a sang ringawt zel, a chhan ber chu Indian Rupee a US dollar va thleng na kha sang miau hek. Hemi US Dollar che hi helai hnai ah awlsam te a kan lo hriat ve theih dan chu, Millenium leh Solomons cave vela Bangkok, Ghuanzou leh Hong Kong thawmhnaw te US dollar san laia han lak leh US Dollar hniam laia lak chu a man a in thlau ta thin a ni. Hriat thiam awlsam nan ti hian sawi teh ang, nikum ah $10 Indian rupee a thleng na chu Rs 450 lo ni ta se, tun kumah $10 thleng na kha Rs 550 ah a chhoh chuan loh theih lohin Imported item nikum lama Rs 450 a lei theih kha tun kumah chuan Rs 550 a lei a lo ngaih phah ta thin a ni. Hei hi sumdawng, company or industry lam atanga aman hi tih pun lam pawh ni lo in Forex market atanga rawn in tan daih a nih vang zawk a ni. 

Chutiang zelin Commodities market Gold leh Silver te thleng hian Dollar a chet chuan a man hi nitin hian a che ringawt mai a ni. Gold market bikah phei chuan phai a Jewellery dawr lian pui pui a kan ngaih te pawh hian hemi dollar chet vanga gold man che ta thin hi tumah in an thunun thei lo a ni. Jewellery dawr chu sawiloh India Jewellery company lian Gitanjali Group leh Titan industries Ltd(Tanishq) te pawh hian he Dollar chet vanga gold man che hi an thunun zo lo reng reng. Commodities market ah phei chuan Gold symbol hi XAUUSD  tih ngat hman a ni. AU hi Gold chemical symbol a nia, USD tih hi chu US Dollar tihna mai a ni. GOLD against Dollar ti te pawh in Business news ah te phei chuan an sawi deuh kher thin.  International market ah chuan Gold hi ounce a chhut vek a nia (1 ounce = 28.3495231 grams) 1 ounce leh 1 dollar ah khan 1 ounce kha a len zawk avagnin XAUUSD tih hman a ni ta a ni. US dollar hi sang zawk ta se chuan USDXUA ti in an ziak mai ang. Sawi tawh angin Gold leh Silver te pawh a mah ringawt hian a hlutna a teh theih loh, chutah chuan US Dollar hi khawvel in a hlutna tehnan a hman a ni ta a ni. Hemi vang hi a nia India ram puma Gold Jewellery dawr ah 22karat leh 24karat man hi a chet tak na chhan chu, Commodity market ah GOLD man a hniam chuan Gold jewellery man kha a hniam ve leh mai chutiang bawkin a san pawhin Gold Jewellery man kha a sang ve leh nghal mai thin.  Hemi World market price natak a che thin hi Jewellery company satliah ve mai mai (eg Gitanjali group, PC Jeweller , Tanishq etc) lo tih danglam chi a ni lo. US Dollar ber a san chuan Commodities market ah Gold man poh a tla duai duai mai a ni, hriat tur chu hetiang World market a chet hian Branded 18Karat Gold and Diamond jewellery erawh a man hi a che ngai lo ve thung a ni, a chhan chu heng branded Jewellery hi chu ornaments a siam tawh an nih vangin Finish product an nih tawh vang a ni. Chutichung chung chuan 22karat leh 24 karat gold jewellery erawh hemi market che hian nasa takin a nghawng thung a ni.

 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/gold-below-1600-dollars-strength-may-curb-demand/articleshow/11113935.cms

  US dollar trend against a che vaih chu hetiang hi an tawn chu a ni ta mai a ni. Bharti Airtel te pawh a crore telin an loss mai, chhiar chhunzawm duh tan:

 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/earnings/earnings-news/bharti-airtel-q2-net-down-38-at-rs-1027-crore-falls-more-than-expected/articleshow/10602710.cms

Tun din hmunah he mi thu ziah lai hian Indian economy hi eng anga tha pawh ni se,  US Dollar meuh a chho hrin zuai zuai tawh chuan tumah in ngam hek lo,  RBI te pawh hian an uipui tuiliam thlir vel mai mai chu a ni ber e.

Still, the Reserve Bank’s ability to intervene in the foreign-exchange market is “limited,” R. Gopalan, secretary of economic affairs in the finance ministry, told reporters in New Delhi today.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-21/india-s-rbi-said-to-buy-rupee-as-currency-falls-to-32-month-low.html

US Dollar asan vanga kan stock market te a hniam a imported goods ho thil man a to chhoh hian India hi a tlu chhe dawn tihna ni loin, Indian economy hi Fundamentally strong ve tak avangin hetiang ah hian kan in hlang kai thleng ve ta zawk tih na a ni. Chumi vang chuan Economist ho in India hi Economy ah kan tha an tih hian an sawi dik a ni, mahse chu mi chuan market price chet dan tur an sawi tihna a ni kher lo.

A chung lama sawi tawh angin, US Dollar chu thunun tu neiin leh awmze neiin (Trend leh Pattern) a lo che kual vel a lo ni ta a, mahse hetianga a kalphung pangai na taka US Dollar rawn ti che buaih thei commodities market  ah hian a awm tlat mai, chu thil chu engdang ni loin CRUDE OIL hi a ni, Crude OIL man a chet chuan US Dollar kalphung pangai Trend, pattern te leh a awm dan tur anga lo ngaihruat lawkna thin Self Fullfilling prophesies te kha a dik thei ta lo thin a, hemi vanga Middle east ram OIL ngah na ah chuan USA phusak zia chu khawvel hriat a ni e. CRUDE OIL rawn san chuan Mizoram Petrol leh Diesel 1 litre man pawh a san nghal vek hi, hei hi Commodities market atanga rawn in tan daih a ni tawh a ni. India sorkar laipui hian CRUDE OIL man hi a va control ngawt theih thil a ni tawh lo a ni. Hetiang hian World market ah Dollar, Oil, Gold, silver etc price hi an che ta dual dual mai thin a ni, hemi che hi country pakhat in a tih danglam theih chi a ni tawh lo. Mahse USA erawh chuan an Dollar hmangin engemaw chen an thunun thei thung a ni.

Sensex/Nifty chhoh leh tlak tur hriat awlsam dan ber chu: New York trading session hunlai in, chumi chu keini tan zan 6:30 bawr vel ah Dollar index a rally chhoh pawp pawp a, Crude OIL man a tlak thlak(DIP/Correction) vawn vawn chuan, a tuk India market session ah kan Sensex/Nifty hian naupang thu awih ang maiin CRUDE OIL man hi a zui thla dan dan zel mai a ni. Helai India company pa hnih khat in hralh that lam a ni lo. FII hoin India Equity market hi Dollar index rawn hedge nan an rawn hmang lek ti zawng pawhin sawi i la, kan sawi sual tam pui lo ang. Hedging tih awm zia chu market price hi a opposite zawnga kal a awm thin a, entirnan EURUSD a chhoh chuan USDCHF hi a chhuk thin, chutiang chiah in USDINR a chhoh in NIFTY/SENSEX a chhuk thin. Chutah chuan a rualin EURUSD (UP trend) leh USDCHF (Down Trend) kha buy ni ta se chumi chu HEDGING  a ni. USDINR (UP TREND) leh NIFTY Future (Down Trend) poh BUY rual ta i la hedging tho a ni. Mitam takin HEDGING hi Fundamental analysis emaw te an tia, Hedging hi Analysis ni lo in Strategy chi khat a ni, hriat pawlh loh tur.

Engtin zel nge?

Tun hma deuh kha chuan Indian rupee hi fully convertible currency a ni ngai lo va mahse tunah hian fully convertible currency a leh tum mek a nia, hei hi a rawn puitlin hunah phei chuan ramdangah India Rupee hi thleng kher ngai loin a hman theih tawh dawn a ni, amaherawhchu tun ai hian kan india stock market hi a volatile nasa zawk tawh dawn tihna a nia. A awmzia chu world market dang Commodities (Gold, silver), Forex, S&P 500, Dow Jones, FTSE etc ang chiah hian a vir thut zel tawh dawn a ni, a sang thut anga chuan a tla leh thut thin ang chumi chu volatility an ti, hei hi a chhan ber chu market sentiment vang a ni kan tih tawh kha. World market a fully convertible currency ni pha chin ni tur hian Economy tha tak ram tan lo chuan thil theih a ni lo, a chhan chu vawikhat market swing a bikin downtrend ah ram rethei ho a nghawng a nat phah ta lutuk thin a, mahse ram dinhmun tha ah chuan engtiang pawhin market volatility hi nasa mahse ram hnuk che map loin a kal ngaiin a kal pat thei ta thin a ni. Chumi chu Fundamentally strong an tih tak a hi a ni, Economy Ngelnghet sawi nan a hman a ni. 

Indian Rupee fully convertible hun a volatile dan tur RBI hoin an lo zir lawkna hi chhiar duh tan:

“Rupee to be more volatile if fully convertible – RBI”

http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Content/PDFs/RRSS180510F.pdf

Tunah hian heng Forex broker ho www.GCI.Com, www.FXDD.com leh a dang te phei chuan tuna Indian Rupee hi Fully convertible currency ah an dah hma hauh pawh hian USDINR, USDCNY (Yuan Renmimbi), USDSGD (Singapore Dollar) Trading platform ah an dah tan der tawh. Hetia World market ah USDINR hi tradeble pair ah a rawn tam telh telh chuan khawi ram atang pawh hian India ram lei lung rawn rap miah lo FX market vang hian India stock market hi tun ai hian an rawn ti volatile nasa thei hle dawn tih na a ni.

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