C.Lalawmpuia's Blog

(Maawma ninhlei na hmun)

Skip to: Content | Sidebar | Footer

The Bears Growl: Update 2

10 July, 2011 (22:41) | Bulls and Bears | By: admin

Post hmasa zawk “The Bears Growl: Update 1”  ah NAV ti che tu chu Nifty/Sensex a ni e, ka’n ti tawh a. Nifty/Sensex ti che tu hi enge ni ta ang le? Ngatinge a chet dan tur hi a lo chhut theih nachhan? Amaha che a lo ni hlei nem! a ti che tu chu keimahni mihring ho lek hi mawle! Chumi chu Market sentiments an ti, hemi vang hian Bull in engtik ah nge hma an rawn lak dawn tih te, Bear in engtikah nge hma an rawn lak hun tur kha Price chart ah hian a lo rin lawk theih ta thin a ni.  Ti hian sawifiah teh ang, Silchar leh Aizawl inkar ah lei min in kawng a dana kar khat chhung kawng a pin chuan, Mizoram a buhfai awmsa rate pawh a sang nghal ringawt zel, Krismas dawn a dawrkai/sumdawng in bungraw chah am a hralh hnem lo in rin lawk te, Krismas dawna thawmhnaw thar lei ngei ngei kan tum na rilru te, Diwali laia phai lama an in hralh hnem ang te hi mihring siam chawp Market sentiment vang mai mai chauh a ni. Chutiang chiah chuan Nifty/Sensex chhuk leh chho chekual vel hi engdang vang mah a ni lo, Investor/trader ho market sentiment vang lek a ni. FII kan tih te pawh mihring ve tho an ni. Chumi vang chu a nia market sentiment a Bearish emaw market sentiment a Bullish chuan khami market trend ang khan trade/invest ve mai tur an tih na chhan. “The Trend is your friend” an tih pawh hi khami market sentiment anga hmalak tur tih an sawi na kha a ni e.  A then phei chuan Crowd Psychology ti in an sawi mai. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_sentiment         

 
 Tun dinhmunah chuan India ah hian Nifty/Sensex a chet a piang hian FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) ho hi a chhan an ni tlang pui a, mahse an mahni ho hian Wall street lamah chuan FII ti hian an sawi lem lova Institutional Investor ti in an sawi zawk thin a ni, a enga pawh chu ni se an sawi tum ber a chu a hlawm lian taka  price action ti che thei tu te sawi na kha a ni ber mai. Banks, Mutual Funds, Insurance, Pension funds te leh a dang te hi a hlawm a rawn invest thei then khat te chu an ni.    

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institutional_investor          

 Dt 5 April 2011 leh  Dt 29 April 2011  inkar a  gold man US$ 1455.40 atanga $1562.25 a chhoh pawh kha engdang vang mah a ni hlei nem, China in Gold market ah an rawn invest vang a ni ber, hei hian Aussie $ pawh a ti sang chho dawrh mai a ni, a chhan chu “The Bears Growl” ah Market corelation ka’n sawi tawh ang khan Australia hian World market ah Gold a export hnem hle a, Gold demand a san khan Gold man a sang chho va, hei hian Aussie $ kha a ti sang chho ve ta ringawt mai a ni. Hei vang hi a nia Gold leh Diamond jewellery man pawh market ah a rawn san chhoh nghal na chhan kha, Aizawl ah pawh Gold leh diamond jewellery man hi a sang tel vek tho. Heta Gold price rally ah hian Chinese ho hian an entry na tak ah hian Chart pattern an rawn hmang a ni. Trader hoin a Breakout trading an tih na thin ah tak an rawn lut huk mai a ni. Chumi vangin Commodity Gold market a lo trade thin kan awm chuan hriat ve mai mai a tana tha chu Commodity market ah hian Technical Analysis hi a pawimawh thlawt tih hriat a tha. Hei le Chinese ho in an rawn luhna lai ang hi thil thar a ni lo a nia Click here. Heti khawp a China in Overseas investment na tur hi sum a neih a vang hian khawvel hian an thlir a ni, US pawhin an tlawn ti tih tawh a nih ber mai hi, Gold market tan China chu Institutional investor an ni ve mai tihna a ni. Chhiar chhunzawm duh tan hetah hian click theih e.  Technical Analysis tih pawh hian chart ngawr ngawr va thlir lam ni loin, Trader/Investor ho sentiment va inbiakna/chhiarna kha a ni.  International Federation of Technical Analyst ho chuan an slogan ah pawh “Where Market Technicians from around the world speak the same language” an ti ngat ni. http://www.ifta.org/ 
 
Hei hi Gold leh AUDUSD chart khaikhinna chu a ni e 

Price Analysis tan leh tawh ang le.     

 The Bears Growl Update 1 (17 June 2011, Zirtawpni) ah khan Head and Shoulder chart pattern a rawn lang ti in thuziak kha tih tawp a nia, Dt 20 June 2011 (Thawhtanni) ah chuan Head and shoulder hmu tu chu an lo tam hle a ni ngei ang, market a rawn in hawng leh chiah chu Nifty hi a rawn tla nghal pawp mai (Bearish candle) mahse hemi ni in close leh na Nifty 5262 tak a kha chart a kan hmuh ang hian Hammer a rawn lang a, hetiang Hammer candlestick hi reversal signal a ni, tuna Hammer candlestick rawn lang hi perfect Hammer chu a ni lo mahse Bull in Bear kha a si chho ngheng dawn, Bull in tan an rawn la dawn e tih a rawn lang a ni. Nifty tla thla vawn vawn tur kha Buyer in an rawn nawr chho dawn e tih a rawn ti lang a ni. Hetiang hian Bull leh Bear hi market ah hian an insual reng thin a ni.  Hammer Candlestick chhiar chhunzawm duh tan ClickHere     

    

“The Bears Growl” ah khan Trigger point tur rawn sawi na lai  Trendline 1 break phawt nghah a fuh ang tih kha kha tun thleng in price in a la break/breach lo zel chu a nia, mahse hei tunah hian Head and shoulder a lan hnu ah candle stick in reversal a rawn ti lang bawk si! Hetiang lai hi mitamtak in Analysis a har an tih lai ber thin a ni. He tih lai hi Economic times ah pawh hetiang hian an sawi “This is a very difficult market to tradeClick here. A chhan chu a chung lamah Trendline 1  kha Strong Resistance a ni bawk si, a hnuai lamah reversal signal (Hammer candlestick) a rawn lang tlat bawk si! Mahse hetiang hunah hian 3-5% vel profit lo lak zawk a theih thin a ni, mahse midang tih a tan chuan ka sawihmuh duh miah lo, a chhan chu timing dik a ngai lutuk, nikhat lek tlai pawhin a pawi thei a, ni khat lek hma pawh in hma sual theih tho a ni. Hemi inkar ah hian 4% vel profit chu lo la hman zauh e. 🙂  Sawi tawh angin market experience in neih fe phawt loh chuan hetiang angah hian rawn invest reng reng suh ang che u.Hetiang Short term a invest dawn chuan Strict money management hman tel ngei ngei tur a ni.     

Trigger point: Dt 24th June 2011 khan Trendline te zawk (dotted green line) khu Bullish candlestick in a break a, hei hian Bullish Market momemtum a rawn ti lang a ni, a huhova buy hukna a awm dawn tih a rawn ti lang a, mahse Profit target tur erawh chu a chunga a resistance line (Trendline 1) thleng chauh kha hman tur a ni. Tichuan Trendline te zawk (dotted green line) a break veleh khuan lo buy chat a, chuan profit target tur Nifty 5750 level kha nghak ta ngar ngar mai a ni. Hetiang momemtum trading ah hian hriat tur chu vawiin ah buy ta i la, naktukah news duhawm lo a thlen chuan a tukah chhuah leh nghal tur a ni, mahse engmah news em em a awm lo bawk a, Nifty 5750 thlen hi lo chang ta ngar ngar mai a ni.  

 

Dt 7 June 2011 chuan Nifty rawn in close na chu 5743 a rawn ni chat mai, hetiang Momentum trading ah hian hriat tur pawimawh tak chu, market in close hma deuh chiah a lo close tur a ni, a nih loh chuan cutoff time hma a close hman loh chuan a tuk Nifty close na kha a rawn ring leh tawh zawk thin, bakah profit target a thlen chuan chho zel palh ni ta se, ui loh tur a ni, khatiang kha LUCK chauh a ni thin. Momentum trading chhiar chhunzawm duh tan http://momentumtrading.org               

  
 
 Hemi ni 9 chhung vel lek hian FII ho chu an rawn lut zawk a, an chhuak leh nghal bawk a ni. Economic times in an ziah dan chu hetiang hi a ni e “Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased equities and debt securities worth a gross amount of Rs 26,004 crore so far this month. However, they also sold shares and bonds worth Rs 19,544.3 crore in the same period, resulting into a net investment of Rs 6,460 crore for the period, according to the information available with market regulator “.  Click here FII ho kha an rawn lut zawk a, an chhuak leh nghal daih tihna a nih chu, hemi hi chart ah khan a lo lan lawk vek vangin ka’n Capital neih ve ang chhun te te a va invest ve in, 4% velin a pun phah ve ta mai tihna a ni e.
Dt 7 June 2011 ah Take Profit (TP) hnu lawk, a tuk Dt 8 June 2011 (Friday) ah chuan market rawn in close leh dan chu tuna kan hmuh ang hi a rawn ni leh ta a ni.
 

 Nifty Forecast  

Analysis with Simple Moving average,  Stochastic Indicator and Candlestick Pattern

Timeframe: 1 Day

Dt 8th June 2011 (Friday) a market in close na kha indicator hmangin en chiang leh ta i la, The Bears Growl a Trendline 1 tih fo kha a la pel lova, tichuan The Bears Growl: Update 1 a 200 SMA rawn sawi kha hmang leh ta bawk i la, SMA 200 leh Trendline zawnah tak resistance kha a la ni ta a ni, hemi resistance ah hian Nifty a rawn tang ta chat tihna a ni. Candlestick Pattern Railroad track a rawn lang bawk a ni. Railroad Track candlestick pattern hi Forex market ah chuan an hmang nasa em em a, Equity ah hi chuan an sawi lar vak lo, a enga pawh chu ni se Reversal indicator a ni. Oscilator Indicator lar lutuk Stochastic hmang tel leh ta bawk i la, Stochastic hi Momentum indicator hman nasat ber pawl a ni.   An hman dan tlang pui chu Price hi chho ta vak se emaw tla ta vak se Bull/Bear an chauh(weak) hun en nan hman a ni tlang pui. Tunah hian a overbought leh tawh bawk a ni. Oscilator indicator lar dang then khat te chu RSI, MACD, CCI, ADX te hi an ni. Hriat a tana tha ve mai mai chu Oscilator hi a vaia hman vek kher pawh a ngai lem lo, mahni hman thiam ber kha thlan chat mai tur a ni.  Chutah chuan Stochastic hi a lar pawl a ni ta a ni. Entry nan Oscilator hman chuan luh sual a awl khawp mai, chumi atan chuan Candlestick hi a chung nung hle a ni. 

 Nifty hian tuna Trendline 1 khu a rawn break chhoh chuan Resistance hi heng ah hian lo en a fuh ang, 5749, 5967, 6201, 6342. Mahse Market sentiment hi tehna chi hrang hrang hrang atanga a la Bearish em a vang hian a chhuk a rinawm zawk a,  Support hmasa ber tur chu 5184 (Head and Shoulder rawn lan hnu a Candlestick tail hmawr)  a ni mai thei. Hemi support in a lo dan zawh loh chuan The Bears Growl a support ho ah khan lo ngaih chan leh a fuh ang. Thil awm thei pakhat chu Nifty hi 5184 support hi a break zok loh chuan Ranging pawhin a awm thei a ni. Ranging market a rawn nih chuan 5743 (Dt 7 June 2011 Take profit na) leh 5184 hian a in then kual thei ta a ni. Ranging market a nih chuan Trader/Investor ho chuan entry hriat a awlsam na lai ber an ti thin a ni. A chhan chu ranging hi a khamphei zawnga Wave hi a kal thin vangin.

Chhiar belh duh tan:

http://www.babypips.com/school/what-is-a-ranging-market.html

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stochasticoscillator.asp

http://www.forexindicator.org/forex-candlestick-reversal-pattern-tutorial-1-railway-track.htmla

   

Comments

comments

Comments

Comment from Caribou
Time July 11, 2011 at 12:00 pm

I blog i rawn update hun tur hi ka lo chang deuh reng thin a. Duh aiin i rawn update har mah mah thin.

Short term trading hi chu a lo harsa dawn hle a nih hi. Hetiang ti thei tur chuan thiamna ril tak neih a ngaih ka ring. Min chhohpui a, hei, min tlak thlakpui leh dawn a ang khawp mai. A fawn san lai taka zuan chhuah nachang hre ve lo keini ang tan hi chuan a tlak hniam lai takin lo SIP mai mai ila, a tawk lek dawn niin ka hria. Practically a invest tur nei lo mah ila, i thuziakte hi ka lo tuipui ve hle thin a nia aw.

Comment from admin
Time July 11, 2011 at 7:57 pm

@Caribou: Ti lawmawm thin khawp mai, rin aiin post pakhat ziah chhung hi hun a duh rei ve thei reuh lutuk a
Short Term Trading chu nia a luh hun te hi a awm thin a, Timing hi a pawimawh khawp mai. SIP hi ka fak khawp mai midang pawh hi SIP hlir hi ka sawi hmuh thin, a fuh ber mai.

Write a comment





*

You can add images to your comment by clicking here.